Monday, December 12, 2011
bloody oy
today I spent Monday babysitting a thorn on my side. I sold some issued st 1.0110 only to watch it go up scared me spittle but eventually it fell to 1.060 and just stayed there I think the trend may stutter a bit and rally a little times. In times like these any positive headlines will force a direction in the commodity led currency.
Sunday, December 11, 2011
This Weeks Strategy
The US, China and Europe are interlinked in such a way that their self interest is served with the unity of the EURO.
China exports a major portion of its goods to the EZ, and a break up of the EZ will lead to a massive revalutation (usually a downward revaluation) which would hurt China's export economy.
In the FX world, currencies are opening weaker relative to the USD. It seems as the consolidation phase of last week has ended. I will look to short the risk currencies this week, and stop my itching fingers from pulling the trigger too quickly while I am bored or when the market is consolidating.
Patience has always been the key to the success of a veteran warrior.
China exports a major portion of its goods to the EZ, and a break up of the EZ will lead to a massive revalutation (usually a downward revaluation) which would hurt China's export economy.
In the FX world, currencies are opening weaker relative to the USD. It seems as the consolidation phase of last week has ended. I will look to short the risk currencies this week, and stop my itching fingers from pulling the trigger too quickly while I am bored or when the market is consolidating.
Patience has always been the key to the success of a veteran warrior.
Saturday, December 10, 2011
What a Strange Week 1 Dec '11
This week, I spent most of the time trading in spot AUD. Vols were getting better bid this week, but several option traders sold gamma thinking that it is way overpriced in the market. Just 2 weeks ago, vols in the EUR were trading at about 13% and this week we saw vols blowing higher by 2% to 3%.
The Aud has been range bound, however, that did not stop me from executing some of the worst trade ever. Selling at the low of 1.0202, holding on to the pain till it got unbearable on Thursday when the AUD blew up as Draghi was speaking to 1.0360, only to see it trade back down to the lows of 1.0170 when his hard lined stance did not put any favour on to the market.
But the AUD has been a strange beast of late. Its a risk on risk off currency, with commodity prices largely influencing its direction. This week showed me that the AUD trades with its own rules and regulations. When S&P tanks, one would generally Buy USD and sell the other currency, but the AUD remained fairly resilient at its current levels.
No matter where EUR trades, we always see the AUD remaining solid as a rock, not yielding to many other noises in the market except for commodity prices.
I will come up with a trading plan this week. Sometimes, spot trading is just not worth the time and effort babysitting. Better off betting on interest rates and volatility.
The Aud has been range bound, however, that did not stop me from executing some of the worst trade ever. Selling at the low of 1.0202, holding on to the pain till it got unbearable on Thursday when the AUD blew up as Draghi was speaking to 1.0360, only to see it trade back down to the lows of 1.0170 when his hard lined stance did not put any favour on to the market.
But the AUD has been a strange beast of late. Its a risk on risk off currency, with commodity prices largely influencing its direction. This week showed me that the AUD trades with its own rules and regulations. When S&P tanks, one would generally Buy USD and sell the other currency, but the AUD remained fairly resilient at its current levels.
No matter where EUR trades, we always see the AUD remaining solid as a rock, not yielding to many other noises in the market except for commodity prices.
I will come up with a trading plan this week. Sometimes, spot trading is just not worth the time and effort babysitting. Better off betting on interest rates and volatility.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)